You can bet that Ray Rice is one of the top draft picks this year.

1. Arian Foster - Foster's touches over the last couple of years might concern some, but he didn't wear much tread off the tires at Tennessee and Ben Tate takes on enough of the workload to help.  Biggest concern is brand new right side of theline.
2. Ray Rice - Rice is set to have a very effective year in both standard and PPR league once again, but will he reach his fantasy potential?  With the Ravens newfound affinity for an up-tempo passing attack, Rice's numbers might be cut into just a bit.
3. LeSean McCoy - The TDs posted by McCoy last season seem to be a little too high for him to achieve this year and the passing game should play a bigger factor for the Eagles.  McCoy will either go 2nd or 3rd in most leagues.
4. Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers is probably as safe as any player in fantasy football as long as his offensive line protects him.  While the tackle position still worries the Pack, Rodgers quick release and ample scrambling ability will keep him at the top of fantasy scoreboards.
5. Drew Brees - Brand new contract and the return of Marques Colston means Brees is a happy camper.  Brees isn't checking in quite this high in most ADP leagues, but I still like him as a top 7 player.
6. Calvin Johnson - In PPR leagues, Mega is an obvious top 6 choice, but in some draft circles, owners are still hesitant to take a WR in the first round regardless of talent level.  As long as he has his arms and legs intact, he'll blow it up.
7. Darren McFadden - You feelin' lucky?  Well are you, punk?  McFadden will win the rushing title if he stays healthy, but after his first three seasons in the league, most don't believe he can stay healthy.  He's worth the risk, but buyer beware.
8. Tom Brady - Most have Brady as the #2 QB in the league this year and I can't really argue that.  To me, the top 3 QBs are all very safe picks in the first round as long as you have a gameplan for how to address the RB position within the next three rounds.
9. Matt Forte - Forte feels like a tough pick to get behind in the first round due to the addition of Michael "TD Thief" Bush to the Bears.  The good news is that Forte will always be a factor out of the backfield as well.
10. Chris Johnson - Johnson is coming off of a horrible year that saw him run with little to no conviction for most of the season.  Despite that, all of us understand that if he gets his game right, he's a fantasy machine in waiting.
11. DeMarco Murray - Murray has injury concerns and we all know that, but when he was right, the Cowboys relied on him on the ground and through the air and he's got the ability to carry the rushing points for a fantasy team.
12. Ryan Mathews - I know you think this is too high, but I'm not going to discount Mathews ability to rack up stats due to injuries.  I'm sure that most will avoid him until later in the draft, but he should be a factor.
13. Julio Jones - He's as risk-free as any WR in this draft not named Calvin Johnson.  Jones has the ability to get deep and he plays in an offense that plans on taking advantage of the passing game more this year.  Very safe selection indeed.
14. A.J. Green - While the ability is certainly there with the elite WRs in the league, Green is still relying on a young QB and he doesn't have much WR help lining up on the field with him.  I still expect a big year, but a little riskier than Julio Jones.
15. Cam Newton - Cam will last longer than this in many drafts and will probably be drafted behind Stafford in a few, but his ability to score rushing TDs inside the five yard line and his expected improvement in the passing game make Cam a solid 2nd round pick in my book.
16. Jimmy Graham - Graham is unstoppable when lined up wide against safeties and Drew Brees understands what he has in Graham.  Stop thinking of Graham as a tight end when drafting and start thinking of him as a pass catcher.
17. Adrian Peterson - Peterson's value is inflated due to the position he plays and despite his heart and toughness, we still understand that Peterson probably won't be the same back this year.  Buyer beware on Peterson.
18. Trent Richardson - Richardson's scoped knee is scaring some fantasy owners off, but it doesn't scare me.  What does scare me, however, is a lack of legitimate passing attack and defenses that will be focused on him throughout the game.
19. Rob Gronkowski - The Gronk got his thangs on during the offseason (and by offseason we mean he started right after the Super Bowl was over), but there is no reason to believe that he won't have a good season (though not as strong as 2011) this year.
20. Jordy Nelson - There continues to be whispers from Green Bay that Jordy Nelson has surpassed Greg Jennings as a talent and that Aaron Rodgers is well aware of this.  Some will see his huge 2012 as a fluke, but he should have another strong year.
21. Marshawn Lynch - Meet the RB that I will try to avoid at all costs.  I respect his achievements from 2011, but is anyone buying into the "staying out of trouble and playing at a high level" parlay this year?  I'm not.  He's part of the scary group of running backs outside of the Rice, Foster and McCoy triumvirate.
22. Victor Cruz - Cruz was helped out by the 3 WR sets that the Giants ran last year, but his ability to make plays down the field and after the catch are no fluke.  Cruz deserves to go within the first two rounds even though he won't in many drafts.
23. Larry Fitzgerald - No matter who the QB is, Fitzgerald always gets his stats, but that doesn't mean that we aren't going to be afraid to draft him.  While history says that Fitzgerald is a safe player to draft, I'm not crazy about him.
24. Mike Wallace - With Wallace back with the Steelers, we can start taking an honest look at him again.  Todd Haley's offense won't help him post a high catch count, but he should be the same dangerous talent who racks up yardage and TDs.
25. Maurice Jones-Drew
26. Matthew Stafford
27. Michael Turner
28. Wes Welker
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Roddy White
31. Jamaal Charles
32. Brandon Marshall
33. Fred Jackson
34. Steven Jackson
35. Doug Martin
36. Greg Jennings
37. Andre Johnson
38. Steve Smith
39. Marques Colston
40. Percy Harvin
41. Dez Bryant
42. Hakeem Nicks
43. Antonio Brown
44. Brandon Lloyd
45. Matt Ryan
46. Frank Gore
47. Jonathon Stewart
48. Darren Sproles
49. Michael Vick
50. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

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